Financials Unshackled Issue 19: Banking Update (UK / Irish / Global Developments)
Latest updates in a UK, Irish, and Global Banking developments context
The material below does NOT constitute investment research or advice - please scroll to the end of this publication for the full Disclaimer
This note picks up on key newsflow since the last ‘Banking Update’ on 6th November. It’s divided into: i) Essential Updates (some detailed updates / perspectives on key developments); ii) Sector News - UK; iii) Company News - UK; iv) Sector News - Ireland; v) Company News - Ireland; vi) European / Global Updates; and vii) Select Economics / Property / Political Updates. While it is not possible to provide hyperlinks you can quickly scroll down to the section(s) that are of interest, with all sections clearly segregated.
ESSENTIAL UPDATES
Mortgages in arrears now reducing:
UK Finance published its Mortgage Arrears and Possessions Update for 3Q24 on Friday, which shows that just 1.08% of owner occupier mortgage balances were in arrears of over 2.5% of the balance outstanding at end-September, down from 1.10% at the end of June. Arrears balances have been consistently grinding up since 4Q22 (which is clearly linked to higher base rates) and then stabilised in 2Q24. This marks the first q/q reduction since 3Q22. The buy-to-let (BTL) data show a similar trend with just 0.67% of BTL mortgages in arrears of over 2.5% of the balance outstanding at end-September, down from 0.69% at the end of June. BTL arrears balances have also been consistently grinding up since 4Q22 (which is clearly linked to higher base rates) and then stabilised in 1Q24 - and this is the first reduction since 2Q22. It is also worth noting that mortgage possessions remained broadly unchanged q/q across both owner occupier and BTL mortgages - and the numbers are running at extremely low levels. The data bode well for improved mortgage asset quality across the banking sector - the inversion of the trend for upward movements in the proportion of mortgage balances in arrears is structural in my view and I expect we will see further moderation in the proportion of balances in arrears from here (despite higher expectations for base rates in the wake of the Budget). Click here for the UK Finance report.
NewDay reported to be lining up possible IPO: Mark Kleinman at Sky News broke a story on Thursday afternoon that NewDay’s private equity (PE) owners, Cinven and CVC, have ‘lined up’ Barclays’ investment bankers to advise on a dual track process, with a potential IPO reported to be one of the options under consideration. The article notes that plans are at a very preliminary stage with no timetable in place at this point. NewDay’s financial performance has been strong in recent years, with u/l PBT of £207m reported for FY23 (the 12 months to 31st December 2023), +2% y/y - and £4.3bn of receivables reported at 30th June 2024. While its PE owners have been down this road before, a more stable macro backdrop is likely to be constructive in the context of a prospective liquidity event. Click here for the article.
SECTOR NEWS - UK
City Minister notes that she supports plans to start charging CMCs to bring complaints: The FT, on Thursday, picked up on remarks made by City Minister Tulip Siddiq in a letter seen by the newspaper to the effect that she supports plans to start charging claims management companies (CMCs) to bring complaints to the Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS). Siddiq’s position on the matter follows the publication of a now-closed Consultation Paper by FOS on 23rd May last (click here for the Consultation Paper) which proposed the introduction of a £250 fee for CMCs and other professional representatives per complaint to FOS (following the utilisation of three free cases per financial year for CMCs and other professional representatives in scope). While concerns were expressed in relation to credit firms potentially ‘weaponising’ the fees in the wake of the FOS proposals - with Jamie Patton, MD at Johnson Law Group, commenting to the FT that the proposals were “ultimately designed to kaibosh” claimant law firms - it does now look very much like the proposals are set to be enforced, which will be much welcomed by the broader lending industry. Indeed, Vanquis Banking Group (VANQ), noted in its 1H24 results announcement that “charging Claims Management Companies and other professional representatives could reduce the persistent harm that current poor practices are causing both firms and consumers and ensure a fairer distribution of financial responsibility”. Click here for the FT article.
Snippets:
John Gapper wrote in the FT on Saturday on how the “unholy mess” arising from the recent Court of Appeal “Hopcraft” judgment is not good news for anyone, including consumers who will likely see the cost of car finance rise (“…eliminating information asymmetry is not the same as making loans cheaper”) - it is hard to disagree with his assessment to the effect that “Risk will be repriced further if this compensation bill runs into billions…” as well as his veiled warning in a broader consumer finance context: “If you can follow a regulator’s code of conduct but remain exposed to mis-selling claims, running a consumer credit business is hazardous”. Click here for the article, which is well worth a read.
It’s worth repeating a note from Friday’s ‘Financials Unshackled Issue 18’ note on an article in the FT on Wednesday, which notes that the motor finance industry has held emergency talks with Treasury and the FCA to arrive at a solution and that some lending has indeed resumed as loan contracts have been recalibrated to disclose the amount of commission paid by the finance providers and how it was computed. The article flags contagion risk and cites comments made by Jamie Patton, MD at Johnson Law Group, who notes that the overall financial impact for the banking industry could be as bad as if not worse than the PPI scandal (based on his reported average claim value estimates of £1,200-1,500 per relevant loan contract on DCAs and £400 on fixed fee commissions). While Nikhil Rathi, FCA CEO, reportedly remarked last week that the regulatory body is awaiting the outcome of a Supreme Court hearing before taking further action, that could be a long time coming and one suspects that the Treasury and the FCA will have something to say well before then. All eyes on when we might see some intervention from these bodies. Click here for the article.
CityA.M. reported on Wednesday evening that the FCA could spend £20m on the first stage of its Motor Finance review. The article also picks up on Adrian Dally’s (Director of Motor Finance at the Finance & Leasing Association (FLA)) comments to the newspaper to the effect that the recent Court of Appeal judgment risked causing “severe disruption” to the lending industry as well as lasting damage to the UK economy. Click here for the article.
Finance & Leasing Association (FLA) reports on growth trends observed in September: Asset finance new business (primarily leasing and hire purchase) +3% m/m (and +4% y/y for 9M24) - click here for the statistical release. Consumer finance new business +9% m/m (and +1% y/y for 9M24) - click here for the statistical release. Consumer car finance new business +4% m/m (and -2% y/y for 9M24) - click here for the statistical release. Second charge mortgage new business +37% m/m (and +14% y/y for the 12 months to 30th September) - click here for the statistical release - indeed, we saw Vanquis Banking Group (VANQ) report strong growth in second charge mortgage originations in 3Q24 last week.
Mortgage pricing has been pushing upwards. Useful data made available by Rightmove on Friday (click here for it) shows that average mortgage pricing has pushed up in the last week by close to c.10bps on higher LTV (85%+ LTV) product, by c.2-6bps on 75% LTV product - though lower 60% LTV product bucks the trend with prices falling by c.3-6bps week-on-week. These price moves come in the wake of rising swap costs pursuant to the 30th October Budget, with government borrowing in the spotlight. Indeed, yesterday’s commentary from the BoE in relation to a now higher inflation outlook (relative to recent expectations), as well as the (interrelated) tail effects attributable to the Budget, will find its way into mortgage pricing over the coming week(s) I suspect. Rightmove’s weekly mortgage tracker from earlier in the week can also be accessed here.
Halifax’s House Price Index (HPI) for October 2024 was published on Thursday last and shows that monthly average house price growth slowed marginally to +0.2% m/m (from +0.3% m/m in September), broadly consistent with the recent Nationwide data - though the Halifax HPI observes annual growth of +3.9% y/y in average house prices in October while Nationwide recently reported +2.4% y/y growth in that same month. Average house prices now stand at £294.0k according to the Halifax data (and £265.7k according to Nationwide). House price trends are constructive in a collateral valuation context from a banking sector standpoint - and the slowing growth is also helpful in an affordability context. Click here for the Halifax HPI.
COMPANY NEWS - UK
Company Results (VANQ, Shawbrook):
Vanquis Banking Group (VANQ) published its 3Q24 trading update on Thursday last. No great surprises in the update though the stock price remains depressed, having sold off further in the wake of the “Hopcraft” judgment - though, notably, VANQ has never entered into discretionary broker commission arrangements. This was covered in ‘Financials Unshackled Issue 18’ on Friday evening. Click here for the note.
Shawbrook published its 3Q24 trading update on Friday. The business continues to report favourably in the context of all of the key metrics that are disclosed in the update. This was covered in ‘Financials Unshackled Issue 18’ on Friday evening. Click here for the note.
HSBA to progress with restructuring initiatives quickly; remains committed to Mexico: Bloomberg reported on Thursday afternoon that Michael Roberts, CEO of Corporate & Institutional Banking and Head of Western Markets at HSBC (HSBA) commented on a Bloomberg television interview that the upcoming job losses will be effected in a “thoughtful way, though without delay (“We are very much aware that this is distracting, this is disruptive, so we are going to do this as quickly as possible”) - and that the axe would fall most heavily on senior positions in a bid to extract material cost efficiencies. Click here for the Bloomberg article and click here for an interesting piece in Investors Chronicle on Thursday which explores some plausible reasons underpinning why HSBA seems determined to retain its presence in Mexico.
Director share sales / Changes in shareholdings:
Danny Nealon, CEO of Barclays’ (BARC) US Consumer Bank (USCB), disposed of 104,741 shares in BARC at a price of 243.5p per share on Monday last, netting him c.£255k (note that the disposal was effected by Solium Capital in its capacity as nominee).
Roberto Hoornweg, Co-Head of Corporate & Investment Banking at Standard Chartered (STAN), disposed of 9,431 shares in STAN at a price of 943.1p per share on Wednesday last, netting him c.£89k.
Secure Trust Bank (STB) issued a RNS on Friday noting that IG Markets has accumulated a disclosable 3.05% shareholding in STB (likely to be on behalf of its clients) following a transaction on Wednesday.
Harwood Capital has accumulated a disclosable 3.12% shareholding in Vanquis Banking Group (VANQ) following a transaction on Friday last.
Snippets:
LendInvest (LINV) issued a RNS on Thursday noting that it has completed its 6th securitisation of £285m of UK Prime BTL and owner-occupied mortgage loans (click here for the RNS). Also click here for an article in property reporter on MT Finance’s inaugural BTL securitisation, which is also covered in financial reporter (click here) - with the latter article also picking up on Hampshire Trust Bank’s inaugural (£300m) mortgage portfolio securitisation. Fitch reported on Thursday on the LINV and MT Finance securitisations - click here for the report.
SECTOR NEWS - IRELAND
Snippets:
I penned a piece for the Business Post this week, summarising on the key trends observed in the Irish banks’ 3Q24 trading updates as well as briefly touching on the Number 1 risk that bank management teams are likely to be alive to, i.e., more competition in a deposit-gathering context. I also flag that, while it hasn’t yet been reported in the media outside of South Africa, it is worth flagging that Ruth Leas, CEO of Investec (INVP), commented on July 31 that the bank is exploring the possibility of a European banking licence to support existing and new client activities in mainland Europe – with Ireland suspected to be a potentially ideal launchpad given Investec’s 25-year history in this market. Click here for the article.
Jon Ihle at The Sunday Times writes today on how non-bank lenders such as Revolut are struggling to win the trust of Irish depositors, with observations from Goodbody’s (AIBG) and Davy’s (BIRG) banking analysts included within the piece. This is a topic I have written extensively about of late - trust is indeed a critical obstacle facing some of the new entrants though we can see that some steps are beginning to be taken in the right direction it must be added (in this vein I would draw your attention to my note of 30th September last in which I scribble about comments made by Francesca Carlesi, the new Revolut UK CEO - click here for it). Click here for Ihle’s article.
Jon Ihle at The Sunday Times also writes today on how mortgage rates are likely to drop more significantly for Irish customers as a result of Trump’s win - citing Deutsche Bank’s revision to where it sees the ECB Deposit Facility Rate in mid-2025 from 2.25% to just 1.5%, with Mark Wall (Chief Economist) at Deutsche Bank reportedly noting that “Uncertainty is high on many levels, from the exact impact of US tariffs to the timing of their implementation to how and when Europe responds. Capturing this uncertainty, we consider 1 to 1.75 per cent to be the main landing zone for the ECB terminal rate.”. Ihle makes the valid point that, the more that official rates fall, the more competitive the non-bank lenders become - “meaning the likes of Finance Ireland, Nua and ICS could meaningfully re-enter the market”. Click here for the article.
COMPANY NEWS - IRELAND
Changes in shareholdings:
BlackRock has been reducing its shareholding in Bank of Ireland Group (BIRG). Its shareholding in the lender reduced to 8.00% following a transaction on Tuesday last (previously disclosed shareholding: 8.61%) - with an additional RNS issued on Thursday noting that BlackRock’s shareholding fell below the 8% threshold (to 7.99%) following a further transaction on Wednesday last.
MFS has increased its shareholding in BIRG to 8.10% following a transaction on Tuesday last (previously disclosed shareholding: 7.97%).
Snippets:
Donal MacNamee at the Business Post wrote on Friday that the audience that AIB Group (AIBG) management “…is most keenly courting right now is the Department of Finance”. As I wrote on Friday, given AIBG’s recent share price strength, it will be interesting to see if government presses forward next week to execute another placing transaction. Friday’s closing stock price of 534c is 8.4% ahead of the price at which the last placing was executed, which should give the Finance Minister confidence to transact provided there is no material selling pressure early next week. Click here for MacNamee’s article.
The Business Post reported on Thursday that John Feeney has been appointed CEO of Corporate & Commercial Banking at Bank of Ireland Group (BIRG), succeeding Gavin Kelly who is taking up his new role as CEO of Davy Group (BIRG) tomorrow. Feeney is currently Head of Property, Project and Asset-backed Finance at BIRG, having joined in 2023 from Mizuho Bank, where he was Head of European Banking. Click here for the article.
EUROPEAN / GLOBAL UPDATES
SRTs report: Interesting report from S&P Global on Wednesday noting that Barclays (BARC) and Santander are the most active users of SRTs in the European banking market - though some mid-sized banks also punch above their weight in terms of issuance volume. S&P Global Ratings is of the view that “…SRT issuance will grow and become broader based as further banks look to manage their credit portfolios more actively through the implementation of the final Basel III standards”, which seems a sensible conclusion given the disparity between the market and the regulatory view of risk in the context of certain high risk-weighted loan assets - with SRTs effectively a means of arbitraging between the two to procure capital efficiency optimisation. The large UK banks have expressed their enthusiasm to engage in further SRT trades - and AIB Group (AIBG) in Ireland has noted that its impending inaugural SRT is expected to mark the start of what will be a multi-year programme. Click here for the report referred to.
Christine Lagarde speaks on the benefits of banking supervision: Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, joined the chorus of supervisors praising themselves for the results of a much tightened bank supervisory regime (with no mention of the risks that have been transmitted to the non-bank sector as a direct consequence it must be said) on Wednesday last. A few interesting observations were made by Lagarde, as follows: i) given much-improved resilience of the banking sector (strengthened capitalisation and liquidity, much-reduced NPLs, less exposure to domestic sovereigns) it is now “resilient”; ii) the principal risks that the eurozone (EZ) faces “…no longer stem from the banks themselves, but from an increasingly volatile external environment” - adding that “…single supervision allows us to address these risks through a common, forward-looking approach”; iii) deepening Europe’s capital markets will be critical in the context of delivering on the enormous investment needed in both physical and human capital to strengthen the bloc; and iv) a single jurisdiction for banks is needed to stimulate the development of “genuine European banking groups”, which would be supportive in the context of funding the impending investment needs - and she goes on to call out some benefits of a more consolidated EZ banking landscape (effective diversification of risks across sectors and regions; capacity to lend more at scale and handle cross-border financing projects; act as capital market makers) as well as noting that a significant benefit of Capital Markets Union (CMU) would be to “…help to remove the differences in national regulatory frameworks that currently hinder cross-border bank activity, paving the way for a sufficiently large securitisation market”. There is clearly support at the highest levels in the ECB for a more consolidated banking system and I have written previously about some of the obstacles in the way of that (lack of EDIS; domestic sovereign exposures concentration; national approaches to bankruptcy, etc.; lack of an EZ-wide securitisation framework). Let’s see how quickly policymakers can make progress in terms of addressing some of these obstacles - indeed, the developments in a prospective Unicredit / Commerzbank tie-up will be interesting to watch over the coming years. Click here to read the speech.
Claudia Buch also spoke on banking supervision, etc., last week: It’s also worth flagging a speech delivered by Claudia Buch, Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, last Wednesday in which she noted that supervisory strengthening initiatives have “paid off” - while acknowledging that supervisory efforts do face ongoing challenges, as follows: i) “…European banking supervision continues to operate in an environment characterised by differences in institutions and legal systems, which have an impact on banks’ activities and risks. Just consider the differences in insolvency legislation across countries, or deposit insurance systems, which remain fragmented along national borders. Risks, however, do not stop at borders.”; and ii) “At present, the banking union remains incomplete, limiting our ability to successfully manage potential future crises. A more integrated European banking landscape would make banks more resilient to domestic shocks by helping them diversify. It would contribute to private sector risk sharing, to the benefit of all Europeans.”. Buch wraps up by noting that improvements are needed as follows: i) closing gaps to make resolution mechanisms more effective and credible (in particular, noting that the enhancements to the crisis management and deposit insurance framework to deal with the failure of medium-sized banks more effectively is essential); ii) a European deposit insurance scheme (EDIS) is needed for European citizens to have full confidence that their deposits will be protected in times of crisis - remarking that supervisory standards to facilitate EDIS have now been delivered; iii) progress is needed to promote the integration and development of capital markets - noting that CMU and harmonisation of relevant legislation (e.g., insolvency rules) “…will help integrate banking markets further”; and iv) “Watering down the Basel rules would be self-defeating – it would weaken the guardrails, in particular for globally active banks, and increase regulatory uncertainty”, though one wonders whether irrepressible pressures will be exerted on policymakers to do something here (see more below on this). Click here for the speech.
Reuters piece on European banks regulation: Reuters published an interesting article on Friday afternoon on how the wave of bank deregulation that’s coming in the US “…should give European banks some leverage to lobby for easing the rules in Europe, which are already more onerous”, according to one banking executive’s comments to the news agency. The article also picks up on Filippo Maria Allotti’s (Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes) comments to Reuters that international banks like Barclays (BARC), Deutsche Bank and UBS, who have substantial US operations should see “positive impacts” accruing from US deregulation - indeed, BARC shareholders observed a nice bump in its share price last week on foot of Trump’s win. Click here for the article. Indeed, Bloomberg also reported - later on Friday afternoon - that the EU and the UK will face pressure to delay or relax the increase in bank capital requirements contemplated in the context of the implementation of the final Basel 3.1 reforms package - with Sebastien de Brouwer, Deputy CEO of the European Banking Federation (EBF), commenting that “There will be voices in the EU and most likely the UK calling for a pause” following Trump’s election. Click here for that article.
Snippets:
ECB consults on its approach to options and discretions available in EU law: The ECB published a consultation on its revised policies for applying options and discretions available in EU law on Friday last (click here for the press release and click here for the consultation documents), which runs until 10th January 2025. The revised policies outline how the ECB will exercise the options and discretions available to supervisory authorities under EU law when supervising banks. These options and discretions relate to several prudential rules, such as the definition of own funds, the calculation of capital requirements for certain risk categories, the types of assets included in the trading book and the exclusions allowed when determining the consolidation scope of a banking group.
The European Banking Authority (EBA) has observed an improvement in competent authorities’ (CAs) practices on the supervision of NPLs. Click here for the press release and click here for the report, which notes that “…the outcomes of the follow-up peer review suggest further improvements in the supervisory methodologies and practices employed by the prudential CAs in their supervision of NPE management by credit institutions and the level of the implementation of the Guidelines by the CAs”.
A number of senior employees at Infosys Finacle penned a piece on Finextra on Thursday last exploring how European banks can leverage AI and technology to become ‘disruptors’ in their own right, concluding that “…while the potential of AI and GenAI in transforming European banks is undeniable, the journey to becoming disruptors rather than the disrupted hinges on more than just technology. It requires an integrated approach to data strategy, cross-functional collaboration, talent acquisition, and navigating regulatory complexities. Banks must move beyond isolated experiments and pilot projects to scale AI initiatives that drive real business outcomes. By addressing legacy infrastructure challenges and investing in a robust data foundation, European banks can fully harness AI's capabilities, creating new revenue streams, enhancing customer experiences, and leading the charge in financial innovation on the global stage. The future belongs to those institutions that are not just quick to adopt AI but also smart in executing it at scale.”. One wonders what the legacy reputation of those bank management teams who do not make the requisite investments will be years from now. Click here for the article. Click here too for an interesting McKinsey piece from Wednesday last on how banks can supercharge technology speed and productivity.
Click here for FT Partners’ November 2024 149-page Global FinTech Monthly Market Update & Analysis, which is a useful resource.
Bloomberg reported on Thursday that the Spanish competition watchdog, CNMC, is likely to announce it needs more time to make a final decision on BBVA’s proposed acquisition of Sabadell (moving to a Phase 2 review), which is likely to extend the hostile takeover pursuit by several months. Click here for the article. Indeed, The Wall Street Journal picked up on Alantra Equities’ research which reportedly notes that BBVA could walk away if the CNMC imposes tough remedies in conjunction with any decision to approve the transaction. Separately, Bloomberg picked up on Wednesday on Unicredit CEO Andre Orcel’s comments indicating that he is patiently intent on ‘playing the long game’ in the context of his ambition to acquire Commerzbank - click here for the article.
The Wall Street Journal, on Wednesday last, picked up on a research report from KBW which notes that Trump’s victory is positive for European capital markets banks such as Barclays (BARC), Deutsche Bank and UBS (consistent with Filippo Maria Allotti’s (of Federated Hermes) views, as referenced above). Indeed, there has been much written on an expected revival in US M&A and IPO activity in the wake of Trump’s win. However, the analyst also reportedly notes that “A win for the Trump campaign asks more difficult questions for European politicians around geopolitics, trade tariffs. The second order effects will be key for bank fundamentals and equity prices, in particular the rate outlook”. The same newspaper also reported on Wednesday on Citi research that reportedly notes that “Banks which could be beneficiaries of a potential Republican clean sweep – UBS, Julius Baer, BNP and SocGen, whereas the impact is likely to be more mixed for others, and likely to be viewed as negative for BBVA, German and Swedish banks in our view”.
I picked up on a new academic study on whether macroprudential tightening matters in the context of loan loss provisioning at European banks late last week. The study, rather unsurprisingly, finds that “macroprudential tightening actions are associated with changes in LLP policy”. Click here for the paper.
SELECT ECONOMICS / PROPERTY / POLITICS UPDATES
BoE cuts base rates: The Bank of England (BoE) cut base rates by 25bps to 4.75% on Thursday, as expected - but issued a note of caution on the inflationary outlook, noting that the Budget is provisionally expected to boost CPI inflation by just under 0.5% at the peak. A statement in the Monetary Policy Report notes, however, that the outlook for inflation remains uncertain and that monetary policy will need to remain restrictive with that in mind: “Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further. The Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.”, which is not unhelpful in a bank earnings capability vein I would add (though lower expected GDP growth and concerns in relation to wage growth are impactful in the opposite direction). It’s also worth flagging that the Monetary Policy Report observes that the reduction in swap rates has begun to feed through to household loan and deposit rates with passthrough progressing in line with expectations thus far (see section 2 from p.40-45). Click here for the Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting of 6th November and click here for the Monetary Policy Report.
Concerns for Irish macro in the context of Trump’s reshoring plans: I’ve picked up on the potential risks to the Irish corporation tax (CT) take as well as multinationals (MNCs) presence in Ireland on account of prospective tax changes under the Republicans in recent notes. The Business Post ran a piece on Thursday noting that some bank stock analysts have cautioned that Trump’s plans for raising tariffs and his desire to bring MNCs back to the US with a proposed reduction in the US CT rate to 15% could prompt a slowdown in Irish economic activity. There are, for sure, real risks at play here in 2025/26 particularly. However, it’s worth noting that foreign MNCs operating in Ireland are not as footloose as they once were (though the risk are more nuanced than simply moving headquarters (HQ) it must be said). Many of the technology firms run their European HQ out of Dublin (with the region now firmly established as a hub for technology talent with the associated powerful network effects that brings) and are likely to want to continue to service the European market from a European base. Additionally, other foreign MNCs with a significant presence in Ireland are heavily weighted towards the pharmaceutical and medical device industries - with, in some cases, quite specialised plant built to support manufacture (e.g., active pharmaceutical ingredient manufacture requires highly specialised facilities), which, in my view, acts as something of a barrier to ‘upping sticks’ quickly. Let’s see what 2025 brings. Click here for the article. Click here also for a good piece penned by Cliff Taylor in The Irish Times on Thursday on this question and click here for another interesting article on the topic from The Currency on Wednesday last. Indeed, The Wall Street Journal also reported on Wednesday on a Citi research note opining that “If a new Republican government introduces higher tariffs on Europe directly, then Germany, Italy and Ireland are the most exposed European countries to U.S. exports”.
Irish General Election to be held on Friday 29th November: The Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Simon Harris triggered the start of the 2024 General Election after he announced on Friday that he will request a dissolution of the current Dáil (Irish Parliament). The General Election is set to be held on Friday 29th November, and judging by latest polls - as well as betting markets - a rerun of the current coalition government appears to be the most likely outcome (perhaps, minus the Green Party). Such an outcome is likely to be welcomed by investors given the stability it would denote.
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